Natalie J. Burls, PhD

Research Focus

My research is focused on improving our understanding of the key processes determining Earth’s climate and climate variability on a variety of timescales ranging from seasonal, to decadal, to much longer geological scales. In particular, I am interested in the climatic role of ocean general circulation, ocean-atmosphere interactions and cloud dynamics. My research efforts acknowledge that, to fully understand, model and predict changes in climate characteristics that have a large impact on society (especially temperature and precipitation patterns), a fully coupled ocean- atmosphere perspective is needed one that accounts for changes in important variables such as the thermal structure of the slowly-adjusting ocean. Complementing observations with theory, I endeavor to accompany complex simulations of climate phenomena with simple models capturing the essential dynamics required to explain unanswered questions within climate science.

Current Projects

■ Understanding cloud feedback and natural aerosol fingerprints to interpret past warm climate forcing and constrain tropical climate sensitivity

■ Examining the links between Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

■ The effect of variations in cloud versus CO2 radiative forcing on tropical SST gradients, atmospheric circulation, and rainfall patterns

■ Characterizing and simulating ocean meridional overturning circulation during the warm Pliocene

Select Publications

■ N. J. Burls & A. V. Fedorov. Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: Contrasting past and future hydrological cycles. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114(49), 12888-12893 (2017).

■ N. J. Burls et al., The Cape Town “Day Zero” drought and Hadley cell expansion. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 2 (1) 27 (2019).

■ N. J. Burls et al., Active Pacific Meridional Overturning Circulation (PMOC) during the warm Pliocene. Science Advances 3 (2017).

■ N. J. Burls et al., Extra-tropical origin of equatorial Pacific cold bias in climate models with links to cloud albedo. Climate Dynamics 49(5-6), 2093-2113 (2017).